Bichette fan or Blue Jays fan? Unless Rogers has given a blank cheque, Ross Atkins can't be both
There are two kinds of Blue Jays conversations that sound identical until you listen closely.
Conversation A: “Bo Bichette is a Blue Jay. Pay the man.”
Conversation B: “The Toronto Blue Jays should win a World Series. Spend wisely.”
They overlap a lot. Until they don’t.
Because the uncomfortable truth is that Bo Bichette’s value and Bo Bichette’s price tag are drifting apart and the gap between them is exactly where good front offices either win October… or end up shopping for “grit” in February.
This isn’t a hate piece, Bo is as top three favourite on the team for me, but it is a grown-up roster conversation. The kind where you can love a player and still admit the contract math is ugly.
The first problem: you’re paying “premium shortstop” money for “not premium shortstop” defense
If you’re going to hand out a monster contract at shortstop, you’re paying for one (or both) of these things:
Elite two-way shortstop impact (a true cornerstone), or
A bat so special it doesn’t matter what the glove looks like
Here’s where it gets tricky for Bo.
In 2025, Statcast credited Bichette with -13 Outs Above Average (OAA) at shortstop. That’s not “a little below average.” That’s “the defense is actively bleeding outs.”
Now look at what Toronto already has in-house right now as alternatives:
Ernie Clement (2025): +2 OAA at SS, +6 at 2B, +7 at 3B (and +15 OAA overall across positions)
Andrés Giménez (2025): +10 OAA at 2B, +2 at SS (and +11 overall)
This is the part fans don’t want to hear: Toronto can replace (and potentially upgrade) Bichette’s defensive value at shortstop internally, because Giménez can handle SS and Clement can cover the second base spot with real range value.
And defense at shortstop isn’t a luxury, it’s a win multiplier. It turns singles into outs, outs into innings, innings into healthier pitching, and healthier pitching into… not having to pray during the 7th inning.
The second problem: Bo’s bat is excellent…just not the “carry a mega-deal forever” kind
Let’s be fair: Bichette raked in 2025 by Statcast quality-of-contact indicators.
He posted:
.361 wOBA and .352 xwOBA
48.8% Hard-Hit rate
7.9% Barrel rate
91.0 mph average exit velocity
That’s impact offense at the highest level.
But here’s the front-office question: is that profile so uniquely rare that you must lock it up at premium-shortstop pricing and accept the defensive cost at short?
Because Toronto already has a “value blueprint” sitting right beside it:
Clement’s offensive floor is usable, and the glove is a weapon
Clement in 2025 put up:
.277/.313/.398 with a .711 OPS
And Statcast shows lower thump:26.0% Hard-Hit rate
That’s not Bo’s bat, not even close, but then you add the defense and Clement is saving outs everywhere he stands.
Giménez brings a “pitcher’s best friend” profile
Offensively, Giménez’s 2025 Statcast line is lighter:
.269 wOBA / .307 xwOBA
27.7% Hard-Hit rate
3.0% Barrel rate
But the defense is elite-tier:
+10 OAA at 2B, +2 at SS in 2025
That matters because Toronto’s identity, especially in a contender window, is often built on converting balls in play into outs and shortening innings. Giménez is basically a defensive tax credit.
“Okay, but what does the lineup look like without him?”
It looks less flashy in the 2-hole…and more functional over 162 games.
Here’s the realistic shape:
SS: Andrés Giménez (range-first, steady hands, run prevention)
2B/UTIL/3B: Ernie Clement (multi-position defense, lineup glue)
The “Bo money” gets rerouted into run production that ages better (OF bat like Kyle Tucker, DH flexibility) and run prevention that wins October (bullpen leverage arms, depth starters, and injury insulation).
This is the part where the “Bo fan vs Jays fan” distinction shows up.
A Bo fan asks: “Who replaces Bo’s hits?”
A Jays fan asks: “Who replaces Bo’s total value per dollar while making the roster harder to break?”
Those are different questions.
“Demonstrate the impact on wins without him”
Let’s do it in the cleanest, most honest way we can with public Statcast tools:
1) Defense: the swing is real
Bichette at SS in 2025: -13 OAA
Giménez at SS in 2025: +2 OAA
That’s a 15-out swing just from the shortstop position in the same season context.
Now, converting outs to runs (and runs to wins) varies by situation, but the classic front-office shorthand is: ~10 runs ≈ 1 win. If your shortstop play alone is moving the needle by something like a dozen-ish outs over a season, you’re talking about a meaningful fraction of multiple wins before we even talk about the ripple effect on pitcher workload and bullpen exposure.
2) Offense: you lose quality-of-contact… but not necessarily total run scoring if money gets reallocated
Bo’s Statcast offensive profile (xwOBA .352, hard-hit 48.8%) is simply a higher “damage” tier than Clement or Giménez.
So yes: you lose middle-order bite.
But the point of letting a star walk isn’t “replace him with a worse hitter and smile.”
It’s “replace him with a cheaper combination and use the surplus to buy run creation that ages better and run prevention that compounds.”
If the Jays let Bo walk and do nothing else, they get worse.
If they let Bo walk and use the money to strengthen two other roster fault lines, they can realistically net out to the same or better win total because the defensive upgrade at SS is immediate and bankable, while the offense can be purchased in more stable positions than shortstop.
The third problem: risk doesn’t just mean decline, sometimes it’s role
Bichette can absolutely hit but the question is whether a front office should be paying him like a franchise shortstop while Statcast is screaming that he isn’t playing franchise shortstop defense.
If Bo has to slide off short to justify a long contract then you’re now paying premium dollars for a bat that’s no longer giving you the premium positional value you bought it for.
That’s how contracts become anchors And Toronto, right now, is too close to being great to buy anchors.
So what’s the actual “case against” re-signing him?
It’s not “Bo stinks.” He doesn’t. Not even close.
It’s this:
1) Shortstop defense is a leverage point, and Bo is negative there by Statcast.
2) Toronto already has in-house middle-infield defense that is objectively elite (Giménez) and surprisingly valuable (Clement).
3) The roster can be re-built into a more October-proof version of itself by reallocating Bo’s dollars into areas that age better than shortstop.
4) The wins you gain from improved defense and smarter spending can offset (or surpass) the wins you lose from removing Bo’s bat if the money is used like contenders use money.
If you’re building a highlight reel, you keep Bo forever.
If you’re building a championship machine, you ask the question out loud and then you answer it like an adult.
Sources
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/bo-bichette-666182
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ernie-clement-676391
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/andres-gimenez-665926
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?endYear=2025&min=q&pos=4&range=year&roles=&split=yes&startYear=2025&team=&type=Fielder&viz=hide
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bichebo01.shtml
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clemeer01.shtml
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gimenan01.shtml
